The Capital Behind the Order: A Fall High Point Market Credit Perspective

October 1, 2026 David Johnston - FMCA Comments Off
FURNITURE MANUFACTURERS CREDIT ASSOCIATION • CONNECT • PROTECT • COLLECT
FALL HIGH POINT MARKET 2026 • OCTOBER 17–21

The Capital Behind the Order

At Fall High Point Market, retailers will decide where to invest their inventory dollars. Suppliers should be equally deliberate about the vendor credit—and the capital—standing behind the sale.
By David R. Johnston
Vice President & General Manager
Furniture Manufacturers Credit Association
Fall High Point Market • October 17–21, 2026

High Point Market credit decisions deserve the same attention as product, placement and sales opportunities. When the home furnishings industry gathers in High Point this October, opportunity will naturally dominate the conversation.

New collections. New accounts. Expanded placements. Larger programs. New store openings. Fresh introductions for established customers.

That is what Market is supposed to create.

Across more than 11.5 million square feet of showroom space and 2,000 exhibitors, retailers will spend five days deciding which products, suppliers and programs deserve their attention—and their investment.

The retailer
Where should we invest our inventory dollars?
The supplier
How much of our capital are we willing to carry in the customer’s receivable?

Those decisions are connected. Before Market, suppliers can identify the accounts where a larger order could materially change exposure. During Market, they can keep new information moving between Sales, Credit, Finance, Operations and Collections while orders are being discussed.

Every Market order carries two decisions: what do we want to sell—and how much vendor credit do we want standing behind it?

A Sale on Terms Is More Than a Sale

Consider a $100,000 order.

From the sales side of the supplier’s business, the headline is easy: $100,000 in new business.

But if the merchandise is sold on open terms, the transaction does not end when the order is accepted—or even when the goods ship. By that point, the supplier has manufactured or purchased the product, carried inventory, paid operating expenses, perhaps paid freight and delivered the merchandise. The customer has the goods, while the supplier still waits for the cash.

What it has is an account receivable.

There is nothing inherently troubling about that arrangement. Vendor credit is one of the ways commerce moves. It allows good customers to purchase merchandise, manage working capital and grow without paying cash before every delivery. For suppliers, terms can strengthen relationships and make sales possible that might otherwise never occur.

Terms are a sales tool—and a financing decision.

Until the receivable becomes cash, part of the supplier’s capital remains committed to the transaction. So the question behind a Market order is larger than Can we make this sale?

There is another:

How much supplier capital are we comfortable putting behind it—and what information supports that decision?

There Is Opportunity Heading Into Market

Suppliers are heading into Fall Market with legitimate reasons to look for opportunity.

Smith Leonard’s newly released September 2026 Furniture Insights, covering July industry results, provides a stronger furniture-specific backdrop. New orders rose 5% from June and 9% from July 2025, bringing year-to-date orders 5% ahead of 2025. July shipments rose 3% from June and 8% year over year; year-to-date shipments moved 1% ahead of last year. Backlogs increased 2% from June and 12% from July 2025.

The breadth matters, too. Roughly two-thirds of participating companies reported higher July orders than a year earlier, and about 60% reported higher shipments. Smith Leonard also noted that new orders, shipments and backlogs have now increased year over year for three consecutive months—the first such three-month stretch for all three measures since mid-2021.

Yet Smith Leonard’s interpretation is equally important: the furniture business is not homogeneous. Higher- and middle-end segments are generally outperforming the low end, while upholstery is currently outpacing case goods. Improving industry averages, in other words, do not mean every category, customer or supplier is experiencing the same conditions.

The Broader Picture Is Still Mixed

The broader economy tells a similarly mixed story. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ September 30 annual update estimated real U.S. GDP growth at a 2.2% annual rate in the second quarter. In August, consumer spending increased 0.9% in current dollars and 0.6% after inflation.

But an improving furniture trend is not an account-level all-clear. PCE inflation remained 3.4% above a year earlier, core PCE inflation was 3.0%, and inflation-adjusted disposable personal income was unchanged for the month. The labor market is also showing signs of cooling: nonfarm payroll employment increased by just 29,000 in September, while the unemployment rate was 4.2%. Existing-home sales remained restrained as well, running at a 3.98 million annual pace in August with 4.9 months of inventory.

The opportunity can be real without the strength being uniform.

High Point Market Credit Starts at the Account Level

Industry averages are useful context. They cannot tell a supplier whether a particular dealer’s inventory is turning, whether cash is tightening, or whether a larger Market order can be comfortably supported. The account—not the industry average—is where the credit decision is made.

That is why FMCA’s full 2026 Credit Risk Pulse matters. It gives us a view of what credit professionals are seeing one account at a time rather than asking a national statistic to answer a customer-level question.

What the Full Credit Risk Pulse Shows

53%
said overall payment performance had worsened
16 of 30
67%
reported slower payments
20 of 30
53%
reported reduced communication or difficulty reaching customers
16 of 30
60%
had become more selective when evaluating or extending credit
18 of 30

FMCA’s full pulse includes 30 anonymous completed responses collected between August 21 and September 16, 2026. It is a member pulse rather than a statistically representative study of the entire industry, so the counts matter as much as the percentages. With 30 responses, each response represents about 3.3 percentage points.

The full pulse reinforces the account-level nature of the risk. Fourteen of 30 respondents said deterioration was concentrated among one or two customers or a small group. Ten said it was appearing across multiple customers or becoming widespread. Five said they were not seeing meaningful deterioration, and one was unsure.

The pulse does not describe one uniform credit market. It describes individual accounts moving in different directions.

That makes account-level information especially important.

Slower payments remained the most frequently reported warning sign, selected by 20 respondents. Broken payment promises were selected by 13; requests for additional time and orders exceeding established credit limits by 12 each; smaller or less frequent orders and store closings or reductions in operations by 10 each. General economic uncertainty was the leading outside concern, selected by 17 of 30 respondents.

“We all want and need sales, but we have to weigh the pros and cons of the sale against the collection of the sale.”
— FMCA member credit professional, 2026 Credit Risk Pulse

That is not Credit arguing against Sales. It is an argument for understanding the capital being committed when the company sells more.

A Larger Order Can Change the Decision Without Changing the Customer

A High Point Market credit decision can change materially even when the customer itself has not changed.

Suppose an established customer normally carries $50,000 of exposure with a supplier. The relationship is good. The retailer has paid acceptably. Sales knows the account well. Credit knows its history.

Then Market goes exceptionally well. Several introductions connect. The customer expands a program. Perhaps another location is involved. By the end of the conversation, projected exposure could rise from $50,000 to $125,000.

Normal exposure
$50K
→
Potential exposure
$125K
The customer may be the same. The supplier is now considering an additional $75,000 of exposure.
Do the assumptions that supported $50,000 also support $125,000?

This is the same assumption problem explored in FMCA’s first Credit & Risk Outlook. Commercial decisions rest on assumptions. A selling price assumes a certain cost. An inventory commitment assumes demand. A credit limit assumes that a customer will generate sufficient cash to meet its obligations.

Business has always required decisions to be made without perfect information. The problem arises when an important assumption changes while the decision built upon it does not.

Market can increase exposure in an afternoon. The information supporting that exposure needs to keep pace.

Growth Can Be Good News—and Still Change Working-Capital Needs

An unusually large order should not automatically be interpreted as either reassuring or alarming. A retailer experiencing genuine growth may need substantially more merchandise. That is exactly the kind of customer a supplier wants to grow with.

But growth can increase working-capital requirements. Inventory often has to be purchased before it is sold, while payroll, rent, freight, advertising, insurance, utilities and other operating expenses continue through the retail cycle. Vendor credit can help bridge that period. That is one of its legitimate purposes.

The relevant question is whether the supplier recognizes when its role in financing that cycle is getting larger.

FMCA members’ recent comments illustrate why simply looking at whether an invoice is technically past due may not tell the whole story. One member was paying closer attention to customers leaving long gaps between payments; another reported seeing some customers make payments primarily when they needed another sold order released.

The aging category can look similar. The behavior behind it can be very different.

Payment behavior can provide important clues about how a customer is managing cash. It is not conclusive by itself, but changes in timing, consistency and communication can add useful context.

“They’ve Always Been Good” Is Valuable Information. It Is Not the Only Information.

Longstanding relationships matter. Historical payment performance matters. Trust matters. A customer that has paid well for years has earned something a new account has not: a record.

But history answers a particular question:

How has this customer performed under the conditions that existed before now?

It cannot completely answer another:

What does today’s information tell us about the exposure being considered today?

A customer can retain the same ownership, stores and management while its economics change. Costs rise. Margins narrow. Inventory turns slow. A lender tightens availability. A store closes. Another opens. For example, payments that historically arrived in 35 days may begin arriving in 40, then 45. Communication becomes less consistent. One payment promise slips. Then another.

Each event may have an entirely reasonable explanation. The combination may tell a different story.

Before Market: Prepare for Larger Vendor Credit Exposure

High Point Market credit preparation begins before the showroom gets busy. The job before Market is preparation; the job during Market is connection. Both begin with the individual account.

That does not require reviewing every customer from the ground up. It means identifying the accounts where a strong Market could materially change exposure.

Which customers are already carrying larger-than-normal balances? Which have slowed modestly over several months? Where are payment gaps becoming longer? Which accounts have had ownership, management or store changes? Where are larger programs expected? Which prospects could become meaningful new accounts quickly?

The purpose is not to create a list of customers to reject. It is to know where another piece of information could materially improve the decision before the showroom gets busy.

Before Market, Sales can identify the accounts likely to expand. Credit can review current exposure and payment behavior. Collections can surface recent conversations. Finance can flag concentration or margin concerns. Operations can identify unusual order or shipping patterns. Management can decide who has authority to approve meaningful exceptions.

Before Market, know which accounts could turn a good order into a bigger capital decision.

When that work is done in advance, the company can move faster during Market—not slower. A larger order can be evaluated in context while the opportunity is still in front of the team.

During Market: Connect Sales and Credit Before Exposure Grows

Market creates information in real time. Salespeople should not become credit investigators, but they often hear things Credit may never hear unless someone passes them along.

A retailer talks about opening another store. Perhaps a longtime controller has left, or a second generation is taking over a family business. Ownership may be changing. Another customer mentions switching banks. One location is closing while another is expanding. An account that usually purchases conservatively suddenly wants a much larger program.

None of those facts automatically means the account is stronger or weaker. But each can change an assumption behind the exposure being considered.

At the same time, Credit may know that the account is already carrying an unusually high balance, paying several days more slowly, leaving longer gaps between payments or requiring more follow-up than it did six months ago. Collections may be hearing explanations for payment delays. Finance may see margin or concentration pressure. Operations may see expedited requests, unusual shipping patterns or a sudden increase in order volume.

Information becomes more useful when it crosses departmental lines before the exposure is created.

The communication should work in both directions. Sales should bring new customer information back to Credit, and Credit should give Sales useful account context before expectations are set with the customer.

A two-minute conversation while an order is still being discussed can be far easier than unwinding a promise after the fact.

The supplier sees the customer most clearly when Sales, Credit, Finance, Operations and Collections connect the pieces.

That is not Credit slowing down Sales. It is the company acting on a more complete account-level view. Better High Point Market credit decisions come from connecting those signals while the opportunity is still being discussed.

Why FMCA Was Built Around the Account

From the Furniture Credit Clinics to FMCA

In 1961, Wallace Taylor and other furniture credit professionals were working with a limitation that still sounds familiar today.

No individual supplier could see the entire credit picture alone.

A manufacturer knew how a customer paid its own company. What it could not easily know was the factual, historical payment experience other suppliers were having with that same customer.

The early Furniture Credit Clinics in Virginia, western North Carolina and High Point grew from that need and ultimately became the Furniture Manufacturers Credit Association.

The information did not make the decision for the supplier. It added another piece of the picture so each company could make a better-informed independent decision.

Member Helping Member: Another Account-Level View

High Point Market credit decisions can benefit from another source of context: the experience of other suppliers in the same industry. A supplier today has access to vastly more information than a furniture credit manager could have imagined in 1961. That is a tremendous advantage, but it does not mean there is one perfect source—or that all useful information sits inside the Credit Department.

Own A/R history Financial information Commercial credit sources
Sales intelligence Collections experience Industry vendor-credit experience

FMCA has long described this as turning on additional lights. Another light does not replace the one already on. The company’s own receivable history remains essential; financial information, commercial sources, Sales intelligence and collection experience each add a different perspective.

Member Helping Member adds another layer: factual historical vendor-credit experience, along with the broader professional experience and knowledge of credit people who understand the customers and business realities of the home furnishings industry.

That shared experience can help a member recognize a pattern, confirm a trend, frame a better question or see something its own ledger cannot show. It does not replace the company’s information, policies or judgment.

The full Credit Risk Pulse shows that principle in practice. One respondent specifically noted paying closer attention to payment trends being seen by other FMCA members—an example of how Member Helping Member can add context that one company’s ledger may not provide on its own.

No single source tells the entire story. The value comes from turning on more lights—and connecting what they reveal.

What One Supplier Cannot See Alone

Today, FMCA member companies provide monthly accounts-receivable information supporting an industry-specific Credit Interchange network covering more than 35,000 retailers and designers throughout the United States and Canada. FMCA’s community brings together the shared experience and knowledge of more than 70 member companies and over 300 credit professionals.

The purpose is not collective decision-making. It is better-informed independent decision-making.

FMCA’s customer-specific interchange activities focus on permitted factual, historical credit information. Members independently establish their own prices, terms, financing rates, credit limits, discounts, policies and decisions about whether to do business with any customer. FMCA does not make or recommend those decisions for its members.

The goal is not to replace judgment. It is to give judgment more to work with.

Good Credit Is Not About Eliminating Risk

High Point Market credit management is not about eliminating risk. If eliminating open-account receivable exposure were the goal, the policy would be simple: cash before delivery.

It would also eliminate a great deal of perfectly good business.

Successful suppliers take risk. They extend terms and support growth. Good customers receive accommodations when circumstances justify them, and strong relationships may last decades.

The discipline lies not in refusing risk. It lies in understanding how much risk is being taken, why it is being taken and whether the available information continues to support it.

Sometimes additional information confirms that the customer deserves more capacity. In other cases, it suggests growing the relationship more gradually. Or it uncovers a question nobody had thought to ask.

All three outcomes have value.

Credit’s contribution is not the word “no.” It is helping the company turn opportunity into profitable, collectible business.

The Order Is Only the Beginning of the Return

High Point Market will produce introductions, partnerships, placements and orders. Those are important measures of success.

But every order written on terms still has one transformation left to make.

What Completes the Cycle

The final conversion
The receivable still has to become cash.

Only then have the investments made before and during the sale completed their cycle—the design, product development, sourcing, manufacturing, importing, warehousing, freight, showroom expense, travel, sales effort and vendor credit.

How much good business can we write—and how much supplier capital should stand behind it?

What Has Not Changed

Sixty-five years ago, Wallace Taylor and other furniture credit professionals recognized that their own view of a customer was valuable but incomplete.

The same principle applies before and during Market today: start with what your company knows, connect what Sales, Credit and the rest of the organization are seeing, add factual experience and knowledge from appropriate outside sources, and then make your own decision.

Turn on another light. See more of the customer. Then make your own decision.

The industry has changed enormously since 1961. So have the technology, Market and the sources of risk.

But the capital behind the order is still real.

And the value of understanding where that capital is going has not.

The Tools Have Changed. The Mission Hasn’t.

Before and During Fall Market, Put Another Light on the Customer

High Point Market credit decisions are stronger when suppliers have industry-specific vendor-credit information alongside the tools they already use. FMCA helps manufacturers, importers, wholesalers and factoring firms connect that information with member experience and practical credit resources.

Use the FMCA contact form to request membership information or to ask about arranging a brief showroom visit by appointment during Fall High Point Market.

Furniture Manufacturers Credit Association
Connect • Protect • Collect
Economic and industry data cited were checked through October 2, 2026.
Primary/current sources used in this article include Smith Leonard Furniture Insights (September 2026 issue; July 2026 industry data); U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays (August 2026); BEA, third estimate of second-quarter GDP (September 30, 2026); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation (September 2026); National Association of REALTORS®, Existing-Home Sales (August 2026); and High Point Market Authority. FMCA Credit Risk Pulse findings are based on 30 anonymous completed member responses collected August 21–September 16, 2026. FMCA historical material is from the Association’s own records.